China Balances Coal Power with Energy Security and Decarbonization Goals
As wind and solar capacity expands rapidly across China's vast landscape, fluctuations in grid frequency and voltage intensify. In this grand narrative of national energy security and low-carbon transition, a critical question looms: when extreme weather strikes and renewable energy output plummets, who will step forward as the last line of defense for grid stability? The answer still points to that controversial yet evolving force—thermal power generation.
I. Peak Shaving and Resilience: The "Stabilizer" of New Power Systems
Despite the growing share of renewable energy capacity, the intermittent and volatile nature of wind and solar power makes them inherently incapable of independently ensuring absolute grid stability. Thermal power units, with their rotational inertia and reactive power output capabilities, naturally support grid frequency, voltage, and synchronization stability. Against the backdrop of rising peak loads, thermal power serves not only as the "ballast" guaranteeing electricity supply during extreme weather but also as a "regulator" that creates space for renewable energy integration through flexible peak shaving. In the coming decades, coal power will continue to shoulder peak-shifting responsibilities, transforming from a "baseload power source" to a "regulatory power source" through comprehensive flexibility retrofits.
II. Technological Breakthroughs: From Ultra-Supercritical to 700°C Systems
China's current energy utilization efficiency hovers around 35%, still lagging behind world-leading standards. Improving generation efficiency and reducing coal consumption form the lifeline for the thermal power industry's survival and development. While ultra-supercritical technology has become standard, the more advanced 700°C ultra-supercritical technology stands poised for deployment. By heating steam to 700°C while maintaining pressures above 35MPa, generation efficiency can surpass the 50% threshold. This breakthrough not only directly reduces coal consumption but also curbs sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and heavy metal emissions at their source, creating more favorable economic conditions for subsequent carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) implementation.
III. Flexibility Retrofits: Breaking the "Heat-Determined Power" Paradigm
In northern heating regions, the traditional "heat-determined power" operational model long constrained thermal units' peak-shaving capabilities. To overcome this limitation, the industry is aggressively promoting combined heat and power (CHP) decoupling retrofits. Through advanced intelligent control, predictive control, and adaptive control technologies, units can now maintain heating supply while flexibly adjusting generation output according to grid demands. This technological maturation will significantly unleash thermal units' peak regulation potential, enabling them to provide efficient ancillary services even during winter heating seasons.
IV. Coupling and Negative Emissions: Exploring Thermal Power's Ultimate Form
The future of thermal power involves not mere reduction but strategic addition and multiplication. By coupling with biomass co-firing, coal units achieve carbon emission reductions at the combustion source. Meanwhile, deep integration with supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) Brayton cycles and solar thermal generation opens new pathways for rapid decarbonization in the power sector. Furthermore, CCUS technology—as the core of carbon recycling—is transforming emitted CO₂ into industrial raw materials, propelling thermal power toward negative emissions.
V. Evolutionary Pathway: A Three-Phase Strategic Transformation
Looking ahead, China's clean thermal power development will progress through three distinct phases: First comes the low-carbon and flexibility enhancement stage, focusing on energy-saving retrofits of existing units. Next follows the biomass energy integration phase, optimizing fuel structures to approach carbon neutrality. The ultimate stage involves negative emissions development, where large-scale CCUS and carbon-negative technologies will completely remove thermal power's "high-carbon" label, establishing it as an indispensable green foundation within the new power system.
This transformation represents not a simple phase-out but a profound technological revolution. Through innovation and structural optimization, thermal power is redefining its core value in modern energy systems—a rational alignment with China's energy endowment and an essential pathway toward sustainable energy development.
